As the United States presidential election nears on November 5, polls indicate a fiercely competitive race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump. The outcome will undoubtedly hinge on the American electorate, but the global ramifications of this election mean that world leaders are closely monitoring the developments.
Vladimir Putin, Russia
Putin's affinity for Trump stems from a belief that they share similar authoritarian traits. Ash notes, “Putin sees Trump as a reflection of himself—an authoritarian sociopath he thinks he can understand.” Moreover, Putin has long opposed Western liberal democracy, and he likely believes Trump would perpetuate discord within institutions like NATO and the European Union.
Despite this apparent preference for Trump, Russian analysts maintain that the U.S. stance toward Russia will remain hostile regardless of the election outcome. Historically, Putin has not shied away from weighing in on U.S. politics, previously praising Trump as a “bright and talented person” during the 2016 election cycle.
In a July intelligence briefing, U.S. officials hinted at Russia's ongoing preference for Trump in the 2024 race, indicating no shift in support based on U.S. policy towards Ukraine. Putin’s tongue-in-cheek praise for Harris this September, calling her laughter “expressive and infectious,” was met with Trump’s quip at a rally, indicating a complex dynamic between the two leaders.
Xi Jinping, China
While both candidates are expected to maintain a hardline approach to China, reports suggest that Chinese officials may prefer a Harris presidency. Jia Qingguo, a former dean at Peking University, notes, “Ironically, Xi probably wants Harris, as does Iran.” This contrasts with Trump’s past claims of a strong relationship with Xi, though it is unclear how this would translate into policy should he return to office.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not made an explicit endorsement, but many believe he leans toward a Trump victory. Their camaraderie during Trump's presidency was marked by mutual admiration, with Netanyahu referring to Trump as Israel's greatest ally in the White House. However, their relationship has been strained since Biden took office.
Efforts to restore ties include Netanyahu’s recent visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, where past accolades were exchanged. Despite this, the Biden administration has provided robust support to Israel, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts in Gaza.
European and NATO Leaders
A significant number of European leaders express a preference for Harris. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated, “I know her well. She would certainly be a good president.” Conversely, Trump has been critical of NATO, threatening to withdraw and demanding increased defense spending from allies, which could alienate European partners.
Harris is expected to align more closely with Biden’s policies, including climate initiatives, while Trump’s administration might pivot toward fossil fuel production, distancing the U.S. from global climate agreements.
Other Leaders in Asia
Japanese officials have built connections with Trump’s former administration, but there are apprehensions that a Trump presidency could lead to a focus on domestic issues at the expense of international collaboration.
The preferences of world leaders for the U.S. presidency reveal a complex interplay of geopolitical interests and past relationships. While some leaders appear to favor Trump’s approach, others see Harris as a stabilizing force for international relations. As the election draws nearer, the implications of the outcome will reverberate across the globe, affecting alliances and diplomatic strategies for years to come.